The Nile Dispute - Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Ethiopia is building a dam known as Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) - a $4.5bn (£3.6bn) megaproject on the Blue Nile river. The Blue Nile River - originating from Lake Tana in Ethiopia, flows north to make up 80% of the Nile River in Egypt. The Blue Nile meets the White Nile - which makes up the remaining 20% of the Nile - in Khartoum, Sudan.
The GERD project is guaranteed to affect the Blue Nile River's flow into the Nile significantly depending on the pace of Ethiopia's filling of the reservoir. Hence, this project has been the source of a significant ongoing conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt. At the same time, Sudan is caught in the crossfire of their conflict. This quagmire has seen emperors, regimes, dictators, presidents and prime ministers come and go. The latest round started in 2011 amid the rise of the Arab Spring and the issue is still ongoing today.
Ethiopia, one of the world’s fastest growing economies, wants to build hydroelectric power plant, which would be Africa’s biggest and the seventh largest in the world-in part to secure its economic and political prowess in the region and in part to provide electricity to its 70% of citizens who live without it as well as distributing the remainder to neighboring countries who are in deficit. This plant is stationed at the border of Ethiopia and Sudan, without any interference with Sudan’s jurisdictions.
Egypt, who heavily relies on the Nile, opposes the building of this dam because it believes it will greatly reduce the water supply and disturb the nature of life for its citizens, particularly farmers, who use the Nile year-round. Because 90% of Egypt’s water comes from the Nile, Egypt feels threatened that Ethiopia having control of the river will greatly undermine Egypt’s independence. Despite the Nile originating in Ethiopia, Egypt has been the undisputed, unchallenged ruler of the river up until very recently.
Sudan, who has historically sided with Egypt in matters of international affairs, who also happens to be coming off of years of U.S. economic sanctions and has experienced its fair share of over flooding, has shifted allegiance to Ethiopia, citing the transboundary benefits of this infrastructure in the form of cheap electricity and regulated water flow.
Furthermore, both Egypt and Ethiopia are looking to gain power relative to the other. The fact that Egypt wants Ethiopia to cease all programs of building this infrastructure, which would greatly improve Ethiopia’s economy as well as create jobs for Ethiopia’s largely unemployed population, shows Egypt’s goal is relative gain. Conversely, Ethiopia’s dismissal of Egypt’s concerns and the real possibility of the dam’s repercussions on the livelihood of Egyptians shows the same goal for Ethiopia-relative gain.
Both countries understand the mega economic power the Nile has and is capable of bringing, therefore neither country wants the other to have full control. While both states are technically sovereign, they feel their sovereignty is under attack when one country overlooks the other’s needs and interests or when they feel like they have to depend on the other’s approval before acting in their state’s best interest. This conflict is a major world issue and has the potential to start a major war if it’s not resolved diplomatically and soon.
Things to Know about the Nile Dispute
1.Threat of using violence
All three countries are doing and have threatened to do whatever is necessary to maintain their national security and to maximize their benefits. High profile Egyptian politicians were caught on film plotting to bomb the dam upon completion. Egypt has also openly threatened war if it comes down to it. Ethiopia retaliated by saying “we are prepared to send millions of soldiers if Egypt pursues this path.” In addition, Ethiopia has accused Egypt of training domestic terrorists within Ethiopia. Egypt has swiftly denied these allegations.
2. Sudan’s Shift of Allegiance
Sudan’s shift of allegiance, although done simply to maximize their benefits, was the catalyst for many African nations siding with Ethiopia on this issue. As we know, the United States (although “formally” mutual) is on Egypt’s side. Everything the U.S. has done thus far regarding the dam has been in Egypt’s favor. So, having the support of many African nations is a great thing for Ethiopia because it is a source of support if this dispute was to ever get physical.
3.The Project Manager’s Death
The GERD’s Project Manager, Engineer Semegnew Bekele was found dead in his car in Meskel Square. His death, although officially ruled as a suicide, is widely speculated to be an assassination orchestrated by Egyptians officials. Egypt has swiftly denied these allegations.
4. Projections
The dam is predicted to cost approximately 5 billion dollars.
The projected capacity is more than 6,000 megawatts.
Ethiopia has said it will start filling the reservoir in July 2020.
5. Outside Involvement
President of Egypt and outgoing Chairperson of the African Union, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi requested President of the United States, Donald Trump to mediate and help guide the two nations to come to a common ground. Nobel Peace Prize winner, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, on his end, asked South African President and incoming chairperson of the African Union (inaugurated as of Sunday, February 9th, 2020), Cyril Ramaphosa, to mediate and set precedent for members of the African Union to support peaceful and diplomatic resolutions.
At the end of the day, all parties want cooperation and a peaceful resolution, however neither parties have been shy of verbalizing their desires to engage in armed conflicts if an agreement isn’t reached or if one state crosses boundaries of the other. The dispute over the Nile River is one that we will be hearing for many years to come and one we should be paying attention to. It is a dispute that will, no matter how you look at it, put one nation at an economical disadvantage.